The goal of this diary is to cut through all the talk about which candidate is more electable and actually try to analyze this question using hard polling data. You are about to embark on an analysis of March general election polling in order to determine which of our candidates would be stronger in states that could go either way in the fall depending on who is the nominee, enjoy.
First of all, let me fill you in on some of the basics of this analysis.
I am not going to simply assume that because one candidate won a particular state in the primary, they are somehow more likely to win it against McCain than the loser. So I’m not going to simply going to say "Well Obama won Minnesota so therefore he is more likely to win it than Hillary". Everything will be based off of a combining of all the March general election polling I have found on RealClearPolitics.com (which are mainly Survey USA and Rasmussen polls). Numbers don’t lie.
I’m going to consider a whopping 30 states as "swing states". My definition of a swing state is one that has the potential to go red or blue depending on who the nominee is. Basically if I have seen the state fairly close in polling (5 point difference or so) at one point in March between McCain and one of our candidates, I will consider it a swing state. I’ve used a little of my own discretion to include and exclude several states for these reasons.
Kansas - Including it because even though closest margin is McCain by 9 points, Obama has family ties.
Kentucky and Montana - Excluding them because 9 point smallest margin isn’t enough to make them swing states without another compelling reason.
California - Although I fully expect either candidate to win it, a recent poll showed McCain within 5 of Hillary.
Tennessee - Poll out today showed both dems down by double digits but I've seen Hillary close in other polls.
So let’s get to it. Below is my pretty map that colors states according the difference in strength of Obama and Clinton in the March general election polling. If a state is brown, it is not likely to switch its electoral votes regardless of who we nominate. If there is either red or blue, it can at least for now be called a swing state where again, polling has shown a close race depending on who the nominee is. I’ve gone through all the polling and found a number that is the difference in the margin of each candidate when matched up against McCain. In other words, if Hillary’s average margin from the polling is 5 points ahead in a given state and Obama’s is 5 points behind, Hillary is +10, or ten points stronger than Obama in that state.
I’ve also decided to color states light purple where the difference in strength of Hillary and Obama is below three points. If it’s that little of a difference, it is really irrelevant at this point.
There are four shades of red and blue depending on the relative difference in strength and here is the key that explains the different shades...
So here we go, here is the map of the relative state by state general election strength of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama according to March polling...
Discounting the states that where both candidate’s strength are extremely close, the states that Obama is stronger in are worth a combined 162 electoral votes while the states the Hillary is stronger in are worth a combined 92 votes. This map isn’t meant to predict who will win these states, but it does offer us a snapshot, or a picture of where each candidate might start off stronger or have to work harder than the other would. Essentially, Hillary may have to work a lot harder than Obama would to win Washington, and Obama would have to work harder to win Massachusetts. That doesn’t mean they both couldn’t win those states; there is a LONG way to go until election day. Obama or Clinton, however, may begin with a head start. I consider about 254 electoral votes to be up for grabs (different states to different degrees), but Obama is stronger than Hillary in competition with McCain for 63.7% of these electoral votes according to the March polling I have seen.
Yes, Hillary is stronger in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, three critical states. The thing that most Hillary boosters seem to forget is that Washington, Oregon, South Dakota, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Connecticut, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada and others matter too. The bottom line is that Obama has a path to the nomination even without Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. He can trade those states for Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and a Carolina and win without winning a single of those four states that the Clinton campaign has dubbed necessary to a democratic win.